IDC are predicting that over the next four years sales of Windows Phone will increase to 105 million devices a year, up from the 2014 forecast of 35 million.
The analyst website say that overall sales of smartphones will grow from just under 1.3 billion, as forecasted for this year to 1.87 billion. Windows Phone market share, forecasted this year to be at 2.7%, will increase to 5.6%, an obvious improvement but still fairly slow progress. Meanwhile Android, predicted to have 82.3% market share this year, will fall to 80% in 2018 while iOS will go from 13.8% to 12.8%. “Other OS” will grow from 1.1% to 1.6% meaning Blackberry will possibly make a small recovery over the coming 4 years, or another OS will perhaps arrive.
IDC also forecast the price of devices and predict that the average cost of smartphones will fall by 2018 from $297 this year to $240. Revenue from Windows Phone in 2014 is predicted to be $7.8 billion, an average of $223, while 2018 income will be $19 billion, giving an average selling price of $180.
Personally I would expect Windows Phone market share to be higher than 5.6% by 2018, but believe the sales figure of 105 million devices a year could be about right, if a little on the conservative side. We would be very interested to hear your views on this, will iOS and Android still be as dominant in four years time as they are now? We saw how quickly Symbian dropped from holding a large share of the market.
You can read the whole press release HERE.
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